Horrifying – if predictable – evidence for many of us… wine ‘experts’ aren’t worth much: http://bit.ly/13HYoMF

I’m pretty sure Nassim Nicholas Taleb suggests in the Black Swan that stock-picking portfolio managers are among the careers where expertise – on average – is worth zilch.

** Follow up: Not all wine tasters are full of it: http://youtu.be/tBi9PfZve84 – to which I’d add: not all stock-pickers’ worth = 0. They don’t win every day, but some do have a long track record of outperformance. And that’s the funny part about Taleb’s assessment: yes, on average, investing expertise produces statistically insignificant results (you’d do as well with random luck), but Taleb spends most of the book pointing out the folly of assessing things “on average”. It’s the outliers that are important. **